The immediate reaction to the Twins signing of free agent pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million contract seems surprisingly negative. For example, Hardball Talk writer Aaron Gleeman believes the Twins got it wrong. He feels they paid a premium price for a 32-year old fifth starter coming off back to back seasons with a strike out rate below 5.0 per nine innings. He argues better pitchers than Correia have already been signed to one-year deals this off-season. He's right. But those better pitchers have also gotten more money for their one-year deals and probably don't want to be a part of a long term rebuilding project. So yes, the Twins could have made a splashier move by signing a better pitcher to a one-year deal for more money, but that doesn't make sense for a team in Minnesota's position.
The Twins won't be contenders in 2013 but if they improve they may regain some national credibility as a small market organization to emulate. That will go a long way towards enticing better free agent pitchers into wanting to come to Minnesota and stick around for more than one rebuilding year. As can be seen below, Correia is an improvement and should make the team better.
Over the past four seasons Correia averaged 167.0 innings pitched with a 4.58 ERA. Last year he pitched 171.0 innings with a 4.21 ERA. His record over that time is 46-43. His best year came in 2009 where he pitched 198.0 innings and had a 3.91 ERA and a 12-11 record.
Last year only 3 Twins pitchers accumulated more 100 innings. Scott Diamond pitched 173.0 and had a 3.54 ERA. Brian Duensing pitched 109.0 with a 5.12 ERA and Francisco Liriano pitched 100.0 with a 5.31 ERA. Nick Blackburn came close to the 100 inning mark by pitching 98.2 innings but his 7.39 ERA proved to be unserviceable. Blackburn is no longer on the 40 man roster. With the exception of Diamond, the Twins starters didn't get it done and what followed was a revolving door of minor league pitchers asked to fill the void. The result was a 66-96 season.
You can (and usually should) look at as many advanced stats as you want and obviously point to injuries as an issue, but when something is as inept as the Twins starting pitching was last year, maybe it is time to get back to basics.
Last year the Twins starting pitchers were not able to keep opposing teams from scoring, they weren't able to get wins and thus they could not be penciled in to the rotation every 5th day. In fact, as of August 22, 2012, no starting pitcher other than Scott Diamond had more than 4 wins for the Twins. Here is the understatement of the year...that is a problem.
Four rotation spots were a revolving door all year long. That unreliability and unpredictability is devastating to a pitching rotation. Even if the Twins aren't going to be contenders in 2013, they desperately needed a reliable starter who can stay in the rotation over the course of the year. If history is an indicator, Correia will be effective and reliable enough to pencil in to the rotation.
So what's the problem? Too much money? That argument doesn't hold up either, not for the Twins.
Carl Pavano made $8.0 million in 2011 and $8.5 million in 2012. In 2011 he pitched 222 innings and had a 4.30 ERA. Numbers very similar to Correia's. Then in 2012 the injury bug bit him (which was predictable given his injury history) and he pitched only 63 innings and had a 6.00 ERA. In fact, over the past four years his numbers were worse than Correia's. He averaged 144.0 innings per season, averaged a 4.67 ERA and had a 33-33 record.
What about Liriano? He made $5.5 million in 2012 and it is no secret that even when he was penciled in consistently you never knew whether he was going to pitch brilliantly or have a blow-up game where his poor performance caused the game to be out of reach before the late arriving fans even had a chance to sit down. Over the past four years he averaged 154.43 innings pitched with a 4.96 ERA and was 34-45. Again Correia's numbers are better and the Twins signed him to a cheaper contract.
For Nick Blackburn, the wheels fell off in 2012. He lost it and he could not regain it. But he was paid $4.75 million last year because prior to 2012 he was mediocre (not awful) and ate innings. In other words he was an "okay" back end starter. Over the last four years he averaged 153.13 innings pitched with an average ERA of 5.33 and had a record of 32-42. Again, Correia's numbers were much better.
Some argue that his numbers will take a hit now that he moves to the American League. But he has a strong track record of consistency and consistent pitchers find a way to evolve. If Correia is able to conform his game to the American League, avoids the DL and give the Twins his averages of 167.0 innings with a 4.58 ERA and has a winning percentage over .500 he will be an upgrade for the Twins at a cheaper price than they've paid their lesser performing starters over the past few years. He will help the Twins improve upon their 66-96 record and lock down at least one back of the rotation slot while the young prospects have time to continue developing.
Yes, he falls into the category of pitch-to-contact back-end starter that the Twins have agonizingly tried to fit into the front and back end of the rotation for too long. But the Twins aren't indicating that they expect Correia to be a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. The Twins needed to upgrade the back end of the rotation and that's what they did.
3 comments:
This deal makes great sense for the Twins. It brings cost certainty for an innings eating back end of the rotation starter. It's also a trade friendly contract if Correia gets hot and the Twins want to pick up a prospect at the trade deadline.
We were all hoping for something big. Not Greinke, but something that was absolutely goig to be helpful. Your analysis is helpful.
Your quote:
but if they improve they may regain some national credibility as a small market organization to immolate
I think your meant if they DON'T improve they will be a team to immolate.
The point of the criticism from Aaron Gleemann, Phil Mackey and, well the entire fan base has less to do with plugging a short term hole in the rotation during a rebuild, and more to do with the fact that we as taxpaying fans built the stadium that was allegedly meant to keep the team from being contracted, or moving to North Carolina and got one good before everything fell apart, and they responded by pocketing ridiculous profits in the face of embarrassing team performances, all the while insisting that it was a fluke and they would come around next year. Two 'next years' later we are in even worse shape, and they have finally figured it out. The criticism of the Correia signing is about honesty, and being accountable to the fan base. You can't lie to the fans and make up scouting reports, we've seen the information and know for a fact that Correia is the worst pitcher on the free agent market, plain and simple. In spite of this, Terry Ryan is trying to convince us that they intend to compete in 2013, and wants us to somehow believe that Correia is actually a solid pitcher, which couldn't be farther from the truth. Signing Correia is a stupid move simply because Blackburn could fill his role, or De Vries or any of the other AAA pitchers not making triple their actual value. The reason for the criticism is deeper than just an awful pitcher, if Target Field was to fill the purpose it was promised to fill, then the rotation should have had a true ace two years ago, and holes would have been filled the right way, not with light hitting speedsters on the cheap. Terry Ryan's simply don't work anymore, and he either chooses to bang his head against the wall, or hasn't figured it out. Either that, or he thinks the fans are too stupid to see through his moves for what they actually are. That's the reason for the outrage. Correia could have a great year, and by his standards that wouldn't take much, but at this point the entire organizations has lost the faith of the fans, and the ticket sales are soon to follow. That's the real reason behind the negative response.
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