Yet the Vikings continue to indicate they love Ponder. They still publicly anoint him the quarterback of Vikings present and Vikings future. That feels very scrooge-like during this holiday season. Particularly because the numbers support the fans perspective. For example, here are Ponder's numbers the past 6 games and projected ranks if he averaged those numbers for the whole year:
PAST SIX 6 GAMES
YARDS CMP % RAT
58 47.1 35.5
251 54.3 74.8
63 50.0 37.3
221 75.0 114.2
159 51.2 58.2
119 48.0 41.9
---- ----- -----
145.16 (28th) 54.27 (34th, last) 60.32 (34th, last)
Even if Ponder is just slumping right now, his numbers on the year have not been great either. He is averaging 182.16 YPG (24th); 63.5 CMP % (12th); has a RAT of 82.00 (24th); and has 14 TDs and 11 INTs over 12 games.
A great comparison for those numbers? The former mediocre Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson! Yes, the same T-Jack who panicked every time the pocket collapsed and often reacted by throwing a jump pass for an interception. Over 15 games as a starter for Seattle in 2011 Jackson averaged 206 YPG (26th), 60.0 CMP% (17th) and a RAT of 79 (21st). Jackson also had 14 TDs and 13 INTs.
A deeper look at this comparison shows more similarities and more cause for concern. Both had great running backs at their side and good defenses to pick them up. Neither had great (healthy receivers).Given their similar situations, Jackson and Ponder should have similar numbers. They are similar quarterbacks. Both have strong (mid-range) arms and are mobile.
But, neither knows how to set their feet and/or pull the trigger when appropriate. Neither takes good risks or makes the safe albeit more difficult play (i.e. throwing the ball to the receivers back shoulder where only he can catch it).
Instead, they both take bad risks and make mistakes when they lose patience and force the issue. Neither has ever demonstrated a consistent ability to read NFL defenses quickly enough to get to the second, third or fourth reads before feeling the pressure, escaping the pocket and allowing the play to break down before it fully develops. The only unanswered question is whether Ponder can grow and rise above his slow start. Jackson never did and likely won't have another opportunity to do so. For many fans, Ponder is running out of time as well.
Aside from the Jackson comparison, the Ponder problem gets murkier. There doesn't seem to be a rhythm or reason to Ponder's inconsistency. He doesn't always play well against weak opponents and he doesn't always play poorly against strong opponents.
He played well against Jacksonville (28th ranked pass defense), Indianapolis (18th ranked pass defense), San Francisco (2nd ranked pass defense), Tennessee (27th ranked pass defense) and Detroit the second time (12th ranked pass defense).
He played awful against Arizona (4th ranked pass defense), Seattle (3rd ranked pass defense), Chicago (6th ranked pass defense) and Green Bay (21 ranked pass defense).
He played mediocre against Detroit the first time (12th ranked pass defense), Tampa Bay (32 ranked pass defense) and Washington (30th ranked pass defense).
Only one thing is clear, the numbers and comparisons are not a lot of help at this point. That leaves the eye test. To the naked eye Ponder seems less comfortable the more he plays. He appears to think too much and can't figure out how to "let it go" and play.
The great quarterbacks prepare more than anyone else. They focus more than anyone else. They think, until the game starts. Then they don't think, they play. They trust their preparation. They trust themselves. The eye test shows Ponder has not done that yet. Since he hasn't shown it yet, only time will tell if he actually has that intangible quality. This is likely what the Vikings are waiting to see.
If Ponder doesn't have it, the Vikings will waste too much time waiting for him to develop. AP will kill himself trying to carry the team alone and waste prime running years. And Viking defensive staples like Allen, Winfield and Williams will grow too old to have the game changing impact they are currently capable of.
Perhaps Ponder would thrive with a real #1 receiver and a healthy Percy Harvin. But the eye test shows he also lacks timing, under throws basic routes and completely misses receivers for no reason. I just don't know how the addition of a receiver or two would change that.
All that said, the Vikings show no indication of looking in another direction. Considering the Vikings sold convinced their fan base and legislators to commit approximately $400 million dollars of public tax money towards constructing a new stadium for a team that has not reached the super bowl since the1976-1977 season, the Vikings better be right.
