The Correia Deal Makes Sense

The immediate reaction to the Twins signing of free agent pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million contract seems surprisingly negative.  For example, Hardball Talk writer Aaron Gleeman believes the Twins got it wrong.  He feels they paid a premium price for a 32-year old fifth starter coming off back to back seasons with a strike out rate below 5.0 per nine innings.  He argues better pitchers than Correia have already been signed to one-year deals this off-season. 

He's right.  But those better pitchers have also gotten more money for their one-year deals and probably don't want to be a part of a long term rebuilding project.  So yes, the Twins could have made a splashier move by signing a better pitcher to a one-year deal for more money, but that doesn't make sense for a team in Minnesota's position.

The Twins won't be contenders in 2013 but if they improve they may regain some national credibility as a small market organization to emulate.  That will go a long way towards enticing better free agent pitchers into wanting to come to Minnesota and stick around for more than one rebuilding year.  As can be seen below, Correia is an improvement and should make the team better.

Over the past four seasons Correia averaged 167.0 innings pitched with a 4.58 ERA.  Last year he pitched 171.0 innings with a 4.21 ERA.  His record over that time is 46-43.  His best year came in 2009 where he pitched 198.0 innings and had a 3.91 ERA and a 12-11 record.

Last year only 3 Twins pitchers accumulated more 100 innings.  Scott Diamond pitched 173.0 and had a 3.54 ERA.  Brian Duensing pitched 109.0 with a 5.12 ERA and Francisco Liriano pitched 100.0 with a 5.31 ERA.  Nick Blackburn came close to the 100 inning mark by pitching 98.2 innings but his 7.39 ERA proved to be unserviceable.  Blackburn is no longer on the 40 man roster. With the exception of Diamond, the Twins starters didn't get it done and what followed was a revolving door of minor league pitchers asked to fill the void.  The result was a 66-96 season.

You can (and usually should) look at as many advanced stats as you want and obviously point to injuries as an issue, but when something is as inept as the Twins starting pitching was last year, maybe it is time to get back to basics. 

Last year the Twins starting pitchers were not able to keep opposing teams from scoring, they weren't able to get wins and thus they could not be penciled in to the rotation every 5th day.  In fact, as of August 22, 2012, no starting pitcher other than Scott Diamond had more than 4 wins for the Twins.  Here is the understatement of the year...that is a problem. 

Four rotation spots were a revolving door all year long.  That unreliability and unpredictability is devastating to a pitching rotation.  Even if the Twins aren't going to be contenders in 2013, they desperately needed a reliable starter who can stay in the rotation over the course of the year.  If history is an indicator, Correia will be effective and reliable enough to pencil in to the rotation.

So what's the problem?  Too much money?  That argument doesn't hold up either, not for the Twins.

Carl Pavano made $8.0 million in 2011 and $8.5 million in 2012.  In 2011 he pitched 222 innings and had a 4.30 ERA.  Numbers very similar to Correia's.  Then in 2012 the injury bug bit him (which was predictable given his injury history) and he pitched only 63 innings and had a 6.00 ERA.  In fact, over the past four years his numbers were worse than Correia's.  He averaged 144.0 innings per season, averaged a 4.67 ERA and had a 33-33 record.  

What about Liriano?  He made $5.5 million in 2012 and it is no secret that even when he was penciled in consistently you never knew whether he was going to pitch brilliantly or have a blow-up game where his poor performance caused the game to be out of reach before the late arriving fans even had a chance to sit down.  Over the past four years he averaged 154.43 innings pitched with a 4.96 ERA and was 34-45.   Again Correia's numbers are better and the Twins signed him to a cheaper contract.

For Nick Blackburn, the wheels fell off in 2012.  He lost it and he could not regain it.  But he was paid $4.75 million last year because prior to 2012 he was mediocre (not awful) and ate innings.  In other words he was an "okay" back end starter.  Over the last four years he averaged 153.13 innings pitched with an average ERA of 5.33 and had a record of 32-42.  Again, Correia's numbers were much better.

Some argue that his numbers will take a hit now that he moves to the American League.  But he has a strong track record of consistency and consistent pitchers find a way to evolve.  If Correia is able to conform his game to the American League, avoids the DL and give the Twins his averages of 167.0 innings with a  4.58 ERA and has a winning percentage over .500 he will be an upgrade for the Twins at a cheaper price than they've paid their lesser performing starters over the past few years.  He will help the Twins improve upon their 66-96 record and lock down at least one back of the rotation slot while the young prospects have time to continue developing.

Yes, he falls into the category of pitch-to-contact back-end starter that the Twins have agonizingly tried to fit into the front and back end of the rotation for too long.  But the Twins aren't indicating that they expect Correia to be a number 1, 2 or 3 starter.  The Twins needed to upgrade the back end of the rotation and that's what they did.

The Minnesota Twins: Reason For Optimism



Puckett set a high bar and
high expectations for
Twins center fielders.

The Twins are the only Minnesota organization to spoil its fan base by winning it all and winning consistently.  So, after they followed the 2010, 94 win season with 99 losses in 2011 and 96 losses in 2012 it was time to re-evaluate.  Certainly many factors contributed to the free fall including injuries, lack of pitching, bad trades and poorly spent money.  From an outsiders perspective, as recently as Wednesday the Twins faced a crossroads.  Something needed to change, but what?

Now we know.  The front office has shown its hand.  The Twins are determined to get back to their original formula for success.  That is, have a strong, deep farm system.  Always.  To do so, they must sell high on popular, established players and get guys in return that blossom instead of bust. 

To some, the Twins have traded one problem for another.  They gained desperately needed pitching depth but gutted the outfield.  Undoubtedly the 2013 outfield will have a vastly different look.  And, as Ben Goessling of the Pioneer Press notes, the Twins have had solid, reliable center fielders for 30 years.  However, just because the 2013 starter won't have the star power of Puckett, Hunter or Span, that doesn't mean the position will be a problem next year or for the foreseeable future.


Success after a dirty, hard day at the office.
Typical Mastrioanni.

The Twins front office said Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni will compete for the starting center field position.  Mastrioanni is the immediate solution. 

He is more seasoned than the rest and fits the Twins formula for success.  His displayed his full array of skills  during a win over Detroit in August when he hit a home run, had 3 RBIs, ran aggressively and made an incredible full speed, full extension diving catch to rob Prince Fielder. 

His work ethic, hustle and energy are contagious and exciting.  He is a more physically gifted, outfield version of Nick Punto.  If he continues to play above average defense and has an occasional burst of power, he deserves the nod and will be a solid replacement for Span and/or Revere despite his weak batting average.   

Then at some point in the foreseeable future, the next center field star will step up.  Both Benson and Hicks have much higher upsides than Mastrioanni but both are young and not named Mike Trout.  So, they will have ups and downs and need time to grow and develop in order to reach their potential.  Until that happens, Mastrioanni should provide a nice stop gap in center.

The Twins still have plenty of holes and questions.  After all, they have only begun the long road to recovery.  But, despite the recent trades, center field is not one of them.  And, thanks to the recent trades, plugs for the pitching holes are beginning to arrive. 

The Ponder Problem

At least 50-75% of the time, it is painful to watch Christian Ponder.  He looks uncomfortable, anxious and flustered.  Many fans are begging for Joe Webb now and another solution next year.


Yet the Vikings continue to indicate they love Ponder.  They still publicly anoint him the quarterback of Vikings present and Vikings future.  That feels very scrooge-like during this holiday season.  Particularly because the numbers support the fans perspective.

For example, here are Ponder's numbers the past 6 games and projected ranks if he averaged those numbers for the whole year:



PAST SIX 6 GAMES

YARDS                    CMP %                        RAT
58                             47.1                             35.5
251                           54.3                             74.8
63                             50.0                             37.3
221                           75.0                             114.2
159                           51.2                             58.2
119                           48.0                             41.9
----                          -----                             -----
145.16 (28th)         54.27 (34th, last)            60.32  (34th, last)

Even if Ponder is just slumping right now, his numbers on the year have not been great either.  He is averaging 182.16 YPG (24th);  63.5 CMP % (12th); has a RAT of 82.00 (24th); and has 14 TDs and 11 INTs over 12 games.

A great comparison for those numbers?  The former mediocre Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson!  Yes, the same T-Jack who panicked every time the pocket collapsed and often reacted by throwing a jump pass for an interception.  Over 15 games as a starter for Seattle in 2011 Jackson averaged 206 YPG (26th), 60.0 CMP% (17th) and a RAT of 79 (21st).  Jackson also had 14 TDs and 13 INTs. 

                        Christian Ponder...The New, Not Improved Tarvaris Jackson????


A deeper look at this comparison shows more similarities and more cause for concern. Both had great running backs at their side and good defenses to pick them up.  Neither had great (healthy receivers).
Given their similar situations, Jackson and Ponder should have similar numbers.  They are similar quarterbacks. Both have strong (mid-range) arms and are mobile. 

But, neither knows how to set their feet and/or pull the trigger when appropriate.  Neither takes good risks or makes the safe albeit more difficult play (i.e. throwing the ball to the receivers back shoulder where only he can catch it). 

Instead, they both take bad risks and make mistakes when they lose patience and force the issue.  Neither has ever demonstrated a consistent ability to read NFL defenses quickly enough to get to the second, third or fourth reads before feeling the pressure, escaping the pocket and allowing the play to break down before it fully develops.  The only unanswered question is whether Ponder can grow and rise above his slow start.  Jackson never did and likely won't have another opportunity to do so.  For many fans, Ponder is running out of time as well.

Aside from the Jackson comparison, the Ponder problem gets murkier.  There doesn't seem to be a rhythm or reason to Ponder's inconsistency.  He doesn't always play well against weak opponents and he doesn't always play poorly against strong opponents.

He played well against Jacksonville (28th ranked pass defense), Indianapolis (18th ranked pass defense), San Francisco (2nd ranked pass defense), Tennessee (27th ranked pass defense) and Detroit the second time (12th ranked pass defense).

He played awful against Arizona (4th ranked pass defense), Seattle (3rd ranked pass defense), Chicago (6th ranked pass defense) and Green Bay (21 ranked pass defense).

He played mediocre against Detroit the first time (12th ranked pass defense), Tampa Bay (32 ranked pass defense) and Washington (30th ranked pass defense).

Only one thing is clear, the numbers and comparisons are not a lot of help at this point.  That leaves the eye test.  To the naked eye Ponder seems less comfortable the more he plays.  He appears to think too much and can't figure out how to "let it go" and play. 

The great quarterbacks prepare more than anyone else.  They focus more than anyone else.  They think, until the game starts.  Then they don't think, they play.  They trust their preparation.  They trust themselves.  The eye test shows Ponder has not done that yet.  Since he hasn't shown it yet, only time will tell if he actually has that intangible quality.  This is likely what the Vikings are waiting to see. 

If Ponder doesn't have it, the Vikings will waste too much time waiting for him to develop.  AP will kill himself trying to carry the team alone and waste prime running years.  And Viking defensive staples like Allen, Winfield and Williams will grow too old to have the game changing impact they are currently capable of.

Perhaps Ponder would thrive with a real #1 receiver and a healthy Percy Harvin.  But the eye test shows he also lacks timing, under throws basic routes and completely misses receivers for no reason.  I just don't know how the addition of a receiver or two would change that.

All that said, the Vikings show no indication of looking in another direction.  Considering the Vikings sold convinced their fan base and legislators to commit approximately $400 million dollars of public tax money towards constructing a new stadium for a team that has not reached the super bowl since the1976-1977 season, the Vikings better be right.