The Correia Deal Makes Sense

The immediate reaction to the Twins signing of free agent pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million contract seems surprisingly negative.  For example, Hardball Talk writer Aaron Gleeman believes the Twins got it wrong.  He feels they paid a premium price for a 32-year old fifth starter coming off back to back seasons with a strike out rate below 5.0 per nine innings.  He argues better pitchers than Correia have already been signed to one-year deals this off-season. 

He's right.  But those better pitchers have also gotten more money for their one-year deals and probably don't want to be a part of a long term rebuilding project.  So yes, the Twins could have made a splashier move by signing a better pitcher to a one-year deal for more money, but that doesn't make sense for a team in Minnesota's position.

The Twins won't be contenders in 2013 but if they improve they may regain some national credibility as a small market organization to emulate.  That will go a long way towards enticing better free agent pitchers into wanting to come to Minnesota and stick around for more than one rebuilding year.  As can be seen below, Correia is an improvement and should make the team better.

Over the past four seasons Correia averaged 167.0 innings pitched with a 4.58 ERA.  Last year he pitched 171.0 innings with a 4.21 ERA.  His record over that time is 46-43.  His best year came in 2009 where he pitched 198.0 innings and had a 3.91 ERA and a 12-11 record.

Last year only 3 Twins pitchers accumulated more 100 innings.  Scott Diamond pitched 173.0 and had a 3.54 ERA.  Brian Duensing pitched 109.0 with a 5.12 ERA and Francisco Liriano pitched 100.0 with a 5.31 ERA.  Nick Blackburn came close to the 100 inning mark by pitching 98.2 innings but his 7.39 ERA proved to be unserviceable.  Blackburn is no longer on the 40 man roster. With the exception of Diamond, the Twins starters didn't get it done and what followed was a revolving door of minor league pitchers asked to fill the void.  The result was a 66-96 season.

You can (and usually should) look at as many advanced stats as you want and obviously point to injuries as an issue, but when something is as inept as the Twins starting pitching was last year, maybe it is time to get back to basics. 

Last year the Twins starting pitchers were not able to keep opposing teams from scoring, they weren't able to get wins and thus they could not be penciled in to the rotation every 5th day.  In fact, as of August 22, 2012, no starting pitcher other than Scott Diamond had more than 4 wins for the Twins.  Here is the understatement of the year...that is a problem. 

Four rotation spots were a revolving door all year long.  That unreliability and unpredictability is devastating to a pitching rotation.  Even if the Twins aren't going to be contenders in 2013, they desperately needed a reliable starter who can stay in the rotation over the course of the year.  If history is an indicator, Correia will be effective and reliable enough to pencil in to the rotation.

So what's the problem?  Too much money?  That argument doesn't hold up either, not for the Twins.

Carl Pavano made $8.0 million in 2011 and $8.5 million in 2012.  In 2011 he pitched 222 innings and had a 4.30 ERA.  Numbers very similar to Correia's.  Then in 2012 the injury bug bit him (which was predictable given his injury history) and he pitched only 63 innings and had a 6.00 ERA.  In fact, over the past four years his numbers were worse than Correia's.  He averaged 144.0 innings per season, averaged a 4.67 ERA and had a 33-33 record.  

What about Liriano?  He made $5.5 million in 2012 and it is no secret that even when he was penciled in consistently you never knew whether he was going to pitch brilliantly or have a blow-up game where his poor performance caused the game to be out of reach before the late arriving fans even had a chance to sit down.  Over the past four years he averaged 154.43 innings pitched with a 4.96 ERA and was 34-45.   Again Correia's numbers are better and the Twins signed him to a cheaper contract.

For Nick Blackburn, the wheels fell off in 2012.  He lost it and he could not regain it.  But he was paid $4.75 million last year because prior to 2012 he was mediocre (not awful) and ate innings.  In other words he was an "okay" back end starter.  Over the last four years he averaged 153.13 innings pitched with an average ERA of 5.33 and had a record of 32-42.  Again, Correia's numbers were much better.

Some argue that his numbers will take a hit now that he moves to the American League.  But he has a strong track record of consistency and consistent pitchers find a way to evolve.  If Correia is able to conform his game to the American League, avoids the DL and give the Twins his averages of 167.0 innings with a  4.58 ERA and has a winning percentage over .500 he will be an upgrade for the Twins at a cheaper price than they've paid their lesser performing starters over the past few years.  He will help the Twins improve upon their 66-96 record and lock down at least one back of the rotation slot while the young prospects have time to continue developing.

Yes, he falls into the category of pitch-to-contact back-end starter that the Twins have agonizingly tried to fit into the front and back end of the rotation for too long.  But the Twins aren't indicating that they expect Correia to be a number 1, 2 or 3 starter.  The Twins needed to upgrade the back end of the rotation and that's what they did.

The Minnesota Twins: Reason For Optimism



Puckett set a high bar and
high expectations for
Twins center fielders.

The Twins are the only Minnesota organization to spoil its fan base by winning it all and winning consistently.  So, after they followed the 2010, 94 win season with 99 losses in 2011 and 96 losses in 2012 it was time to re-evaluate.  Certainly many factors contributed to the free fall including injuries, lack of pitching, bad trades and poorly spent money.  From an outsiders perspective, as recently as Wednesday the Twins faced a crossroads.  Something needed to change, but what?

Now we know.  The front office has shown its hand.  The Twins are determined to get back to their original formula for success.  That is, have a strong, deep farm system.  Always.  To do so, they must sell high on popular, established players and get guys in return that blossom instead of bust. 

To some, the Twins have traded one problem for another.  They gained desperately needed pitching depth but gutted the outfield.  Undoubtedly the 2013 outfield will have a vastly different look.  And, as Ben Goessling of the Pioneer Press notes, the Twins have had solid, reliable center fielders for 30 years.  However, just because the 2013 starter won't have the star power of Puckett, Hunter or Span, that doesn't mean the position will be a problem next year or for the foreseeable future.


Success after a dirty, hard day at the office.
Typical Mastrioanni.

The Twins front office said Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni will compete for the starting center field position.  Mastrioanni is the immediate solution. 

He is more seasoned than the rest and fits the Twins formula for success.  His displayed his full array of skills  during a win over Detroit in August when he hit a home run, had 3 RBIs, ran aggressively and made an incredible full speed, full extension diving catch to rob Prince Fielder. 

His work ethic, hustle and energy are contagious and exciting.  He is a more physically gifted, outfield version of Nick Punto.  If he continues to play above average defense and has an occasional burst of power, he deserves the nod and will be a solid replacement for Span and/or Revere despite his weak batting average.   

Then at some point in the foreseeable future, the next center field star will step up.  Both Benson and Hicks have much higher upsides than Mastrioanni but both are young and not named Mike Trout.  So, they will have ups and downs and need time to grow and develop in order to reach their potential.  Until that happens, Mastrioanni should provide a nice stop gap in center.

The Twins still have plenty of holes and questions.  After all, they have only begun the long road to recovery.  But, despite the recent trades, center field is not one of them.  And, thanks to the recent trades, plugs for the pitching holes are beginning to arrive. 

The Ponder Problem

At least 50-75% of the time, it is painful to watch Christian Ponder.  He looks uncomfortable, anxious and flustered.  Many fans are begging for Joe Webb now and another solution next year.


Yet the Vikings continue to indicate they love Ponder.  They still publicly anoint him the quarterback of Vikings present and Vikings future.  That feels very scrooge-like during this holiday season.  Particularly because the numbers support the fans perspective.

For example, here are Ponder's numbers the past 6 games and projected ranks if he averaged those numbers for the whole year:



PAST SIX 6 GAMES

YARDS                    CMP %                        RAT
58                             47.1                             35.5
251                           54.3                             74.8
63                             50.0                             37.3
221                           75.0                             114.2
159                           51.2                             58.2
119                           48.0                             41.9
----                          -----                             -----
145.16 (28th)         54.27 (34th, last)            60.32  (34th, last)

Even if Ponder is just slumping right now, his numbers on the year have not been great either.  He is averaging 182.16 YPG (24th);  63.5 CMP % (12th); has a RAT of 82.00 (24th); and has 14 TDs and 11 INTs over 12 games.

A great comparison for those numbers?  The former mediocre Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson!  Yes, the same T-Jack who panicked every time the pocket collapsed and often reacted by throwing a jump pass for an interception.  Over 15 games as a starter for Seattle in 2011 Jackson averaged 206 YPG (26th), 60.0 CMP% (17th) and a RAT of 79 (21st).  Jackson also had 14 TDs and 13 INTs. 

                        Christian Ponder...The New, Not Improved Tarvaris Jackson????


A deeper look at this comparison shows more similarities and more cause for concern. Both had great running backs at their side and good defenses to pick them up.  Neither had great (healthy receivers).
Given their similar situations, Jackson and Ponder should have similar numbers.  They are similar quarterbacks. Both have strong (mid-range) arms and are mobile. 

But, neither knows how to set their feet and/or pull the trigger when appropriate.  Neither takes good risks or makes the safe albeit more difficult play (i.e. throwing the ball to the receivers back shoulder where only he can catch it). 

Instead, they both take bad risks and make mistakes when they lose patience and force the issue.  Neither has ever demonstrated a consistent ability to read NFL defenses quickly enough to get to the second, third or fourth reads before feeling the pressure, escaping the pocket and allowing the play to break down before it fully develops.  The only unanswered question is whether Ponder can grow and rise above his slow start.  Jackson never did and likely won't have another opportunity to do so.  For many fans, Ponder is running out of time as well.

Aside from the Jackson comparison, the Ponder problem gets murkier.  There doesn't seem to be a rhythm or reason to Ponder's inconsistency.  He doesn't always play well against weak opponents and he doesn't always play poorly against strong opponents.

He played well against Jacksonville (28th ranked pass defense), Indianapolis (18th ranked pass defense), San Francisco (2nd ranked pass defense), Tennessee (27th ranked pass defense) and Detroit the second time (12th ranked pass defense).

He played awful against Arizona (4th ranked pass defense), Seattle (3rd ranked pass defense), Chicago (6th ranked pass defense) and Green Bay (21 ranked pass defense).

He played mediocre against Detroit the first time (12th ranked pass defense), Tampa Bay (32 ranked pass defense) and Washington (30th ranked pass defense).

Only one thing is clear, the numbers and comparisons are not a lot of help at this point.  That leaves the eye test.  To the naked eye Ponder seems less comfortable the more he plays.  He appears to think too much and can't figure out how to "let it go" and play. 

The great quarterbacks prepare more than anyone else.  They focus more than anyone else.  They think, until the game starts.  Then they don't think, they play.  They trust their preparation.  They trust themselves.  The eye test shows Ponder has not done that yet.  Since he hasn't shown it yet, only time will tell if he actually has that intangible quality.  This is likely what the Vikings are waiting to see. 

If Ponder doesn't have it, the Vikings will waste too much time waiting for him to develop.  AP will kill himself trying to carry the team alone and waste prime running years.  And Viking defensive staples like Allen, Winfield and Williams will grow too old to have the game changing impact they are currently capable of.

Perhaps Ponder would thrive with a real #1 receiver and a healthy Percy Harvin.  But the eye test shows he also lacks timing, under throws basic routes and completely misses receivers for no reason.  I just don't know how the addition of a receiver or two would change that.

All that said, the Vikings show no indication of looking in another direction.  Considering the Vikings sold convinced their fan base and legislators to commit approximately $400 million dollars of public tax money towards constructing a new stadium for a team that has not reached the super bowl since the1976-1977 season, the Vikings better be right. 

No More 'Hero Ball'

Dear Kevin Love,

Frustrated?  Me too.

Thank you for demonstrating how much you love your team and teammates by rushing to their rescue weeks before you were expected to return to action. Showed a lot of heart.  But you are shooting .400 (24-60) from field, .188 (3-16) from 3-point range and .647 (22-34) from line.  And yet you are fourth in the league in scoring by averaging 24.3 points a game.  That means you are taking and missing a lot of shots!  I know I know...small sample size.  But your team has lost all three of the games you have played in and has frankly looked very stagnant and sluggish, the opposite of how it looked in the first 9 games it played without you. 

This makes some sense.  They exerted so much energy just trying to compete during the first injury plagued short-handed 9 games of the season, when you returned, they took a deep breath, relaxed and deferred to watching you.  This is not okay.  And you, as their leader, can fix it.

You learned a lot from Lebron and the other all-stars you played with on the Olympic team, right?  Why not try to take a page out of their book.  Why not try to make your teammates better?  They don't need you to score 40 points and have 25 rebounds per game.  They were playing great basketball before you returned and tried to do it all yourself.  Your shot will come back.  But when you are in a slump like this and need time to get back into basketball shape and get your shot back, why not take the next step and become an elite player? 

Here is what I am thinking, take a look at this play from your college days:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rJKIZAa71w .  Nothing flashy about that play but completely effective.  You set two picks to free up the wings and hit the slashing big man for an open lay-up. 

Can we have some more of that?  Can you try moving with your teammates?  Try passing to the open guy instead of forcing shots?  Try being the guy who makes the hustle play and the defensive stop?  Step up and play some help defense.  Will you get in foul trouble every now and then, maybe.  But your teammates will follow suit and your team will start to win, a lot.  When that happens, I promise you will finally be a legitimate MVP candidate.

Now is the time!  Your presence has thrown a wrench in what was a good thing.  You have the power to change that.  Take a few less shots, make a few more passes, move a little more on offense and defense and let's see what happens!!!

Thank you.

Casey

Heat and Soul

The Wolves will be good by the end of the year.  And that is assuming that Roy can't contribute consistently (if at all) and Ricky doesn't come back until sometime in 2013.   It is also assuming they don't give up like they did last year.  And they won't.

The wolves were blown out of the past two games (as well as the Brooklyn game) and could have backed off and saved energy for the next one.  It's a long season after all.  Yet they made furious and unbelievable comebacks in the fourth quarter of both games.  Clearly they are a gritty bunch that will hustle until the end.  With the exception of Kirilenko and Ridnour (who could very well be a back up if everyone gets healthy) the wolves are competing in NBA games with second and third stringers.  Role players like Stiemsma, Cunningham and Amundson who have made careers out of playing harder than most to make up for their minimal skills are filling the shoes of Pekovic and Love.  Shved, Lee and Williams are too young and raw to define yet they are holding their own in the big roles they've been thrust into.  As a group, on paper, these guys do not match up with any team's starters but they yet they are competing.  This group has led the Wolves to the second best defense in the league.  And a winning record.  Those things happen when guys play together, for each other and play hard.  When guys do that, they maximize their talent and their contribution and they win as a team.  

People knock the NBA because too often players do not give 100% until the fourth quarter or until the playoffs.  And without Love, Ricky and Pek last year the Wolves fit that mold and were nearly unwatchable.  They showed no heart, no chemistry and no hustle.  At times this year, the under-maned and under-skilled wolves have played as hard as a Cinderella team in the sweet sixteen.  They've shown moments of fatigue but that is to be expected when a team only has nine players to suit-up.  That leads to the a major question...will the wolves keep up this hustle and grit when they have more bodies?  When they have more talented bodies?  The evidence says they will.  Kevin Love has made himself into one of the top ten players in the league by using hustle and a high basketball IQ to get way more rebounds (and second chance points) then he should be able to get.  And the Wolves will get him back, soon.  They will also get Pekovic, Barea, Buddinger, and Rubio back.  All guys with reputations of playing hard and long on both ends of the court.  They aren't perfect, but they are better and they play just as hard as their understudies.  So, the Wolves will win and will make some noise.  There will be days they succumb to a more talented team, but that won't happen most nights, not even against more talented teams.

During the offseason Kevin Love asked for a better team.  He asked for more talent.  Not only did he get more talent, he got better basketball players.  They aren't all prototypical NBA players but they will win.  If the Wolves get health and stay healthy, they will make the playoffs and make noise.   And along the way, they are going to be a lot of fun to watch.  For any basketball fan, not just an NBA fan.     

OKC Rolls the Dice

The James Harden trade could be genius.  Surprisingly, almost all the experts think Oklahoma City has essentially conceded the Western Conference Title to the Lakers.  The experts point to chemistry and rapport between the core OKC players, most notably Harden, Westbrook and Durant as the key ingredient to the winning formula that OKC developed.  Typically, I agree.  Chemistry is crucial.  But it is not the only element that matters.  Particularly in the NBA.  In the NBA, having the right pieces to run a system and having enough talent can make a team great.   Great enough to win a championship once the requisite amount of chemistry develops. 

Harden is a great player and had great chemistry with the second team as well as Durant and Westbrook.  But with Harden, OKC did not have the right tools to beat the Heat.  Harden and Westbrook were too similar.  Harden is at his best driving to the rim and putting up reckless lay-ups.  The same is true for Westbrook.  When he is on, they go in.  When he is on, defenders cheat and allow the outside shooters a few extra feet outside of the three point line in order to clog the path to the basket.  When that happens and Westbrook and Harder are on on, OKC made a lot of 3-pointers and was virtually unstoppable.  However, reckless contested lay-ups and three pointers are low percentage shots and with the right defense OKC would be forced into "going cold" and would have trouble scoring. 

Consider last years Finals.  The Heat pummeled OKC largely due to Harden's ineffectiveness.  Harden wasn't on when it mattered most.  And OKC crumbled despite the fact that Westbrook played out of his mind.  Few performances can rival his game 4 performance.  In that same game, Harden went 2-10 from the floor while playing 37 minutes, much more than his regular season average.   The Heat sunk in on defense, locked down Durant, let Harden shoot from the outside and knew that Westbrook alone could not beat them.  The Heat would continue to beat OKC so long as the core pieces reminded the same for each team.

Kevin Martin is a different player and will bring a different element to OKC's offense.  His strongest asset is shooting well off the dribble or catch.  If Scott Brooks can revamp his offense such that pick and rolls with Durant/Martin and Westbrook/Martin become a main stay that opens up everything.  That pulls the bigger defenders away from the rim in order to help create space at the rim for Westbrook, Durant, Martin and Ibaka.  Martin's ability to shoot quickly and effectively off the catch means defenders won't be able to cheat and sink in.  Plus, he is big enough to set effective picks.  And, if defenses are able to stop the pick and the role the third superstar will be floating around with the ability to find the open space, get to it and beat that defense by shooting, driving or moving the ball again.  Finally, since Serge Ibaka will no longer by a main pick and roll component that leaves him closer to the basket which is where he is a more effective scorer and rebounder. 

Of course OKC will only challenge for the Western Conference title and the NBA title if Kevin Martin develops Harden like Chemistry with OKC.  That won't happen overnight.  As we learned from the Heat two years ago and last year, it takes more than a big 3, it takes a big three plus chemistry and the right pieces (unless you have Lebron James who can play five positions and make any pieces look like the right pieces).  If Sam Presti, who is widely recognized as one of the best GMs, thought that OKC didn't have the right big three I think there is more to it than the 4 million dollar salary dispute.  Sam Presti saw a problem.  OKC had the chemistry but not the right pieces to make it a championship contender.  Chemistry is something that naturally grows and develops.  But if the pieces don't fit together in a way that can overcome an opponents strengths, it does not matter how much chemistry a team has.  Now OKC has an opportunity to get to the next level, the championship level.  Kevin Martin has physical attributes that Harden did not.  He brings an element to the offense that Harden did not.   Right now OKC has opportunity. Time will tell if it develops into a reality.  But Sam Presti has to get some credit for taking a calculated unpopular risk.  One that actually gives OKC a chance to de-throne the Heat. 

The Power of Tim

Admittedly, I don't watch a lot of National League baseball so maybe I should know more about the Giants players.  But this series has been fun to watch and I keep asking myself this:  What's not to like about the Giants?  First of all they had the guts to let Melky Cabrera, the early front runner for the batting title and possibly the MVP, sit home and watch the playoffs after he returned from his steroid suspension.  Sounds like a good way to build chemistry and show faith in the guys that got them to the playoffs in the first place.

Then there has been the barrage of unsung heroes throughout this improbable run the Giants are on.  Most ridiculous of all was of course Pablo Sandoval hitting 3 home runs in game 1 of the World Series after hitting only 12 home runs during the entire regular season.  Ryan Vogelsong is a 35 year old journeyman who has given up 3 runs in 4 starts this postseason largely due to pinpoint accuracy and the guts to relentlessly throw inside to the big right handed hitters he has faced.  Barry Zito has been a huge factor and he should have been out of the league years ago given how low he sunk.  And but for a season ending arm injury to their sure thing, eccentric closer Brian Wilson, we wouldn't have had the opportunity to watch Sergio Romo do his thing and completely shut down the high powered Detroit offense with slider after slider.  Unsung heroes are fun to watch!  I thank the Giants for proving once again to sports fans everywhere that on big stages non-superstars often shine brighter than the superstars they face.

But  I think one thing has been the difference and will lead the Giants to the title.  Tim Lincecum.  He was their ace, a true superstar two time Cy young winner.  Rather than letting him flounder and hurt the team during his struggles this year, Bruce Bochy demoted him to the bullpen.  He got Tim to accept the new role and somehow, at the perfect time, Tim mastered it.  The Giants pitching has been dominate and I have to believe that knowing Tim Lincecum is sitting in the bullpen ready go and go for long stretches has to be mentally relaxing and freeing for the starters.  Each starter knows they can relax a little bit because it isn't all on them.  If they aren't sharp that day, Tim is ready.  I have to believe it changes the mentality of every player on the Giants team. 

What a luxury for these overachieving pitchers, knowing that if they can't bring their best on the biggest stage they happen to have a young two time Cy young award winner waiting to step up and back them up.  In a game where inches can change the outcome of a game, a series, a season, Tim Lincecum's ability to accept, adjust and thrive in an unfamiliar role has to be a huge factor in the fact that the Giants will win the World Series in 2012.