Packers v. Vikings Part III

The Vikings have some injury concerns, mainly the availability of their best cornerback Antoine Winfield who left last week's season finale when the pain in his broken hand became too much to bear.  Once Winfield left, Aaron Rodger's began playing like Aaron Rodgers and shredded the Vikings' defense of four touchdowns.  Winfield will try to go but its likely he will exit early if/when his pain surges again.   

The Packers on the other hand are finally healthy.  Jennings, Cobb, Nelson and Jones will be healthy and active.  With a lack of depth and talent in the secondary, is Minnesota doomed?

Maybe not.  For starters, the last time the Packers main contributors were all healthy (Jennings, Cobb, Nelson, Woodson, Matthews), the Packers were 2-2 and would lose the next game to Indianapolis without only Jennings to drop them to 2-3.

Further, this is week 18 of the NFL season.  Even those players who are active aren't necessarily healthy.  Often times games like this where two quality teams are playing each other for the 3rd time in a season in a win-or-done playoff match for after closely splitting the two previous contests are not decided by which team is  healthiest.  Instead, the winner is usually the team with the best game plan, that makes the best adjustments before and during the game, the team that executes the best and the team with momentum coming in.

Given last week's victory the Vikings showed they made the better pre-game adjustments, they executed as well or better than the Packer's which gave them the win and the momentum.  The Packers in game decision to target and burn Winfield's replacement, Marcus Scherels, was the in-game adjustment that kept the Packers in the game.   

Thus, regardless of injuries on either side (aside from an early injury to Rodger's or Peterson which could be catastrophic to their respective teams), Saturday's winner will be the team that executes the best.   This is particularly true because the Vikings are involved.  The Vikings are 10-0 this year when they win or tie the turnover battle.  They are 0-6 when they lose it.

The odds have to favor the experienced, playoff savy Packers.  But as recent history has shown you can not count out a group of youngsters playing their best football at the right time like the Vikings are.  One thing is for sure, it will be fun to watch!

Manning and Peterson Both Deserve 2012 Hardware

Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning are vying for the same hardware this year.  While both are strong candidates for each award, is clear that Manning is the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) and Peterson is the Most Valuable Player (MVP).

Manning sat out an entire year after he had two vertebrae in his neck fused together.  His nerves were damaged and no one, not even doctors, knew if he would ever regain the arm strength to make NFL throws, much less to be Peyton Manning again. 

Peterson on the other hand tore his ACL and MCL, which is a severe injury, but he technically only missed one game and no  one questioned whether he would be back.  The speed of Peterson’s recovery astonished experts, but it isn’t unprecedented. Wes Welker had a similar injury in Week 17 of the 2009 season and started in Week 1 of the following year. Welker went the Pro Bowl that year, but did not win CPOY.

Manning, on the other hand, was in an abyss of uncertainty.   Like former CPOY winners Chad Pennington and Willis McGehee, Manning who had multiple surgeries, multiple setbacks, entire seasons lost and moments where retirement seemed inevitable. 

The fact that Manning made it back on the field at all is a feat that could garner him CPOY consideration.  In true Manning form he not only came back but he came back and  played at an MVP level which solidifies him as the 2012 CPOY.  

Ignoring the back stories however, Peterson was more valuable to his team’s success this year and thus is the rightful 2012 MVP.  Manning joined a team that lost in the second round of the playoffs last year with Tim Tebow at the helm.  There was a strong sentiment before the season that Manning, if recovered, was the missing component to an already-talented team.  When the Broncos earned the AFC's 1 seed last week that proved to be true (at least for regular season MVP considerations).

The improved play from talented youngsters like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker evidences Manning's large role in the Broncos' ascent.  But as far as the 2012 Broncos are concerned, it is easy to point out all the areas where the team is strong and all the things that went right.  

The opposite is true of the 2012 Vikings.  The 2012 Vikings became contenders and shattered expectations by adopting Peterson's legendary drive, refusal to quit and confidence.

Consider that the 2011 Vikings were 3-13.  Most thought the Vikings needed to rebuild. The 2012 Vikings have largely the same personnel from 2011 but have managed a 10-6 record and a playoff birth.  That happened despite many things going wrong on the field for them.  

The investment in Jerome Simpson brought no returns; Kyle Rudolph disappears for multiple games at a time; Percy Harvin missed the last seven games of the season; and Christian Ponder, the quarterback in a quarterback driven league, got worse (and sometimes way worse) before he got better.

The Harvin and Ponder situations in particular should have created insurmountable problems for fragile 3-win team.  Harvin was having a monster season and proving to be one of the most electric players on Earth before an awkward tackle ended his season in week 9. He went down and the Vikings became one-dimensional and could have folded (which it appeared Ponder did for a while). 

Ponder had three games this year where he threw for less than 100 yards.  Against Arizona, he threw for only 58 yards, whereas Peterson had five games where he exceeded that total on the ground—on one play! Professional starting quarterbacks not named Tim Tebow don't have one game with less than 100 yards let alone three.  Even Tebow never had less than 60 total yards in a game as a starter.

At a minimum, Ponder had problems and frequently hurt his team rather than helped. His averages of 6.08 yards per attempt and 183 yards per game both ranked him 31st and ahead of only Blaine Gabbert, who’s Jaguars finished 2-14. His total yards ranked 25th, touchdowns ranked 23rd. 

 

His 62.1 % completion percentage ranked him fairly high at 13th, but completing a decent percentage of six-yard passes doesn’t do much to sustain drives, put points on the board and help a team win. In fact, due to Ponder, the Vikings had the highest percentage of three-and-outs of all playoff teams expect the Bengals. And yet, the one-dimensional 2012 Vikings won continuously against strong competition

 

Peterson simply didn't let the team succumb to its seemingly per-ordained mediocrity.  Peterson has always been great, but with Harvin physically unable to perform and Ponder performing awfully, he morphed into something even bigger.  The Vikings went 5-2 after Harvin went down, including must-win games against the Bears, the Texans (the AFC’s two-seed), and the Packers (the NFC’s three-seed).  During that stretch Peterson ran for 1,140 yards and averaged 6.8 yards per carry while Ponder threw for only 1,129 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt in those games. 

The 2012 Vikings, fueled by Peterson's absurd second half of the season performance and leadership, refused to let Harvin's injury, Ponder's growing pains, an inept passing game, 9-man fronts or a brutal end of the season schedule stop them.   Even when put up average numbers, like the 86 yards he gained on 25 carries against Houston in week 16, the Vikings still convincingly won that must-win game on the road.  The Vikings followed that suprise performance by getting over the post-Farve Packer hump and found themselves in the playoffs.   

Peterson is this years MVP because he had one of the greatest rushing years in the history of the NFL, he did so in a pass happy league on a one-dimensional running team AND he also transformed the personality and will of his team so that it became a contender.  With all due respect to Manning and the other worthy quarterbacks out there, Peterson made a position (rb) and a team (the Vikings) relevant at a time when both were at their weakest.  That can't be said for anyone else in the MVP discussion and that makes Peterson the rightful winner. 

The Correia Deal Makes Sense

The immediate reaction to the Twins signing of free agent pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million contract seems surprisingly negative.  For example, Hardball Talk writer Aaron Gleeman believes the Twins got it wrong.  He feels they paid a premium price for a 32-year old fifth starter coming off back to back seasons with a strike out rate below 5.0 per nine innings.  He argues better pitchers than Correia have already been signed to one-year deals this off-season. 

He's right.  But those better pitchers have also gotten more money for their one-year deals and probably don't want to be a part of a long term rebuilding project.  So yes, the Twins could have made a splashier move by signing a better pitcher to a one-year deal for more money, but that doesn't make sense for a team in Minnesota's position.

The Twins won't be contenders in 2013 but if they improve they may regain some national credibility as a small market organization to emulate.  That will go a long way towards enticing better free agent pitchers into wanting to come to Minnesota and stick around for more than one rebuilding year.  As can be seen below, Correia is an improvement and should make the team better.

Over the past four seasons Correia averaged 167.0 innings pitched with a 4.58 ERA.  Last year he pitched 171.0 innings with a 4.21 ERA.  His record over that time is 46-43.  His best year came in 2009 where he pitched 198.0 innings and had a 3.91 ERA and a 12-11 record.

Last year only 3 Twins pitchers accumulated more 100 innings.  Scott Diamond pitched 173.0 and had a 3.54 ERA.  Brian Duensing pitched 109.0 with a 5.12 ERA and Francisco Liriano pitched 100.0 with a 5.31 ERA.  Nick Blackburn came close to the 100 inning mark by pitching 98.2 innings but his 7.39 ERA proved to be unserviceable.  Blackburn is no longer on the 40 man roster. With the exception of Diamond, the Twins starters didn't get it done and what followed was a revolving door of minor league pitchers asked to fill the void.  The result was a 66-96 season.

You can (and usually should) look at as many advanced stats as you want and obviously point to injuries as an issue, but when something is as inept as the Twins starting pitching was last year, maybe it is time to get back to basics. 

Last year the Twins starting pitchers were not able to keep opposing teams from scoring, they weren't able to get wins and thus they could not be penciled in to the rotation every 5th day.  In fact, as of August 22, 2012, no starting pitcher other than Scott Diamond had more than 4 wins for the Twins.  Here is the understatement of the year...that is a problem. 

Four rotation spots were a revolving door all year long.  That unreliability and unpredictability is devastating to a pitching rotation.  Even if the Twins aren't going to be contenders in 2013, they desperately needed a reliable starter who can stay in the rotation over the course of the year.  If history is an indicator, Correia will be effective and reliable enough to pencil in to the rotation.

So what's the problem?  Too much money?  That argument doesn't hold up either, not for the Twins.

Carl Pavano made $8.0 million in 2011 and $8.5 million in 2012.  In 2011 he pitched 222 innings and had a 4.30 ERA.  Numbers very similar to Correia's.  Then in 2012 the injury bug bit him (which was predictable given his injury history) and he pitched only 63 innings and had a 6.00 ERA.  In fact, over the past four years his numbers were worse than Correia's.  He averaged 144.0 innings per season, averaged a 4.67 ERA and had a 33-33 record.  

What about Liriano?  He made $5.5 million in 2012 and it is no secret that even when he was penciled in consistently you never knew whether he was going to pitch brilliantly or have a blow-up game where his poor performance caused the game to be out of reach before the late arriving fans even had a chance to sit down.  Over the past four years he averaged 154.43 innings pitched with a 4.96 ERA and was 34-45.   Again Correia's numbers are better and the Twins signed him to a cheaper contract.

For Nick Blackburn, the wheels fell off in 2012.  He lost it and he could not regain it.  But he was paid $4.75 million last year because prior to 2012 he was mediocre (not awful) and ate innings.  In other words he was an "okay" back end starter.  Over the last four years he averaged 153.13 innings pitched with an average ERA of 5.33 and had a record of 32-42.  Again, Correia's numbers were much better.

Some argue that his numbers will take a hit now that he moves to the American League.  But he has a strong track record of consistency and consistent pitchers find a way to evolve.  If Correia is able to conform his game to the American League, avoids the DL and give the Twins his averages of 167.0 innings with a  4.58 ERA and has a winning percentage over .500 he will be an upgrade for the Twins at a cheaper price than they've paid their lesser performing starters over the past few years.  He will help the Twins improve upon their 66-96 record and lock down at least one back of the rotation slot while the young prospects have time to continue developing.

Yes, he falls into the category of pitch-to-contact back-end starter that the Twins have agonizingly tried to fit into the front and back end of the rotation for too long.  But the Twins aren't indicating that they expect Correia to be a number 1, 2 or 3 starter.  The Twins needed to upgrade the back end of the rotation and that's what they did.