The Ponder Problem

At least 50-75% of the time, it is painful to watch Christian Ponder.  He looks uncomfortable, anxious and flustered.  Many fans are begging for Joe Webb now and another solution next year.


Yet the Vikings continue to indicate they love Ponder.  They still publicly anoint him the quarterback of Vikings present and Vikings future.  That feels very scrooge-like during this holiday season.  Particularly because the numbers support the fans perspective.

For example, here are Ponder's numbers the past 6 games and projected ranks if he averaged those numbers for the whole year:



PAST SIX 6 GAMES

YARDS                    CMP %                        RAT
58                             47.1                             35.5
251                           54.3                             74.8
63                             50.0                             37.3
221                           75.0                             114.2
159                           51.2                             58.2
119                           48.0                             41.9
----                          -----                             -----
145.16 (28th)         54.27 (34th, last)            60.32  (34th, last)

Even if Ponder is just slumping right now, his numbers on the year have not been great either.  He is averaging 182.16 YPG (24th);  63.5 CMP % (12th); has a RAT of 82.00 (24th); and has 14 TDs and 11 INTs over 12 games.

A great comparison for those numbers?  The former mediocre Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson!  Yes, the same T-Jack who panicked every time the pocket collapsed and often reacted by throwing a jump pass for an interception.  Over 15 games as a starter for Seattle in 2011 Jackson averaged 206 YPG (26th), 60.0 CMP% (17th) and a RAT of 79 (21st).  Jackson also had 14 TDs and 13 INTs. 

                        Christian Ponder...The New, Not Improved Tarvaris Jackson????


A deeper look at this comparison shows more similarities and more cause for concern. Both had great running backs at their side and good defenses to pick them up.  Neither had great (healthy receivers).
Given their similar situations, Jackson and Ponder should have similar numbers.  They are similar quarterbacks. Both have strong (mid-range) arms and are mobile. 

But, neither knows how to set their feet and/or pull the trigger when appropriate.  Neither takes good risks or makes the safe albeit more difficult play (i.e. throwing the ball to the receivers back shoulder where only he can catch it). 

Instead, they both take bad risks and make mistakes when they lose patience and force the issue.  Neither has ever demonstrated a consistent ability to read NFL defenses quickly enough to get to the second, third or fourth reads before feeling the pressure, escaping the pocket and allowing the play to break down before it fully develops.  The only unanswered question is whether Ponder can grow and rise above his slow start.  Jackson never did and likely won't have another opportunity to do so.  For many fans, Ponder is running out of time as well.

Aside from the Jackson comparison, the Ponder problem gets murkier.  There doesn't seem to be a rhythm or reason to Ponder's inconsistency.  He doesn't always play well against weak opponents and he doesn't always play poorly against strong opponents.

He played well against Jacksonville (28th ranked pass defense), Indianapolis (18th ranked pass defense), San Francisco (2nd ranked pass defense), Tennessee (27th ranked pass defense) and Detroit the second time (12th ranked pass defense).

He played awful against Arizona (4th ranked pass defense), Seattle (3rd ranked pass defense), Chicago (6th ranked pass defense) and Green Bay (21 ranked pass defense).

He played mediocre against Detroit the first time (12th ranked pass defense), Tampa Bay (32 ranked pass defense) and Washington (30th ranked pass defense).

Only one thing is clear, the numbers and comparisons are not a lot of help at this point.  That leaves the eye test.  To the naked eye Ponder seems less comfortable the more he plays.  He appears to think too much and can't figure out how to "let it go" and play. 

The great quarterbacks prepare more than anyone else.  They focus more than anyone else.  They think, until the game starts.  Then they don't think, they play.  They trust their preparation.  They trust themselves.  The eye test shows Ponder has not done that yet.  Since he hasn't shown it yet, only time will tell if he actually has that intangible quality.  This is likely what the Vikings are waiting to see. 

If Ponder doesn't have it, the Vikings will waste too much time waiting for him to develop.  AP will kill himself trying to carry the team alone and waste prime running years.  And Viking defensive staples like Allen, Winfield and Williams will grow too old to have the game changing impact they are currently capable of.

Perhaps Ponder would thrive with a real #1 receiver and a healthy Percy Harvin.  But the eye test shows he also lacks timing, under throws basic routes and completely misses receivers for no reason.  I just don't know how the addition of a receiver or two would change that.

All that said, the Vikings show no indication of looking in another direction.  Considering the Vikings sold convinced their fan base and legislators to commit approximately $400 million dollars of public tax money towards constructing a new stadium for a team that has not reached the super bowl since the1976-1977 season, the Vikings better be right. 

No More 'Hero Ball'

Dear Kevin Love,

Frustrated?  Me too.

Thank you for demonstrating how much you love your team and teammates by rushing to their rescue weeks before you were expected to return to action. Showed a lot of heart.  But you are shooting .400 (24-60) from field, .188 (3-16) from 3-point range and .647 (22-34) from line.  And yet you are fourth in the league in scoring by averaging 24.3 points a game.  That means you are taking and missing a lot of shots!  I know I know...small sample size.  But your team has lost all three of the games you have played in and has frankly looked very stagnant and sluggish, the opposite of how it looked in the first 9 games it played without you. 

This makes some sense.  They exerted so much energy just trying to compete during the first injury plagued short-handed 9 games of the season, when you returned, they took a deep breath, relaxed and deferred to watching you.  This is not okay.  And you, as their leader, can fix it.

You learned a lot from Lebron and the other all-stars you played with on the Olympic team, right?  Why not try to take a page out of their book.  Why not try to make your teammates better?  They don't need you to score 40 points and have 25 rebounds per game.  They were playing great basketball before you returned and tried to do it all yourself.  Your shot will come back.  But when you are in a slump like this and need time to get back into basketball shape and get your shot back, why not take the next step and become an elite player? 

Here is what I am thinking, take a look at this play from your college days:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rJKIZAa71w .  Nothing flashy about that play but completely effective.  You set two picks to free up the wings and hit the slashing big man for an open lay-up. 

Can we have some more of that?  Can you try moving with your teammates?  Try passing to the open guy instead of forcing shots?  Try being the guy who makes the hustle play and the defensive stop?  Step up and play some help defense.  Will you get in foul trouble every now and then, maybe.  But your teammates will follow suit and your team will start to win, a lot.  When that happens, I promise you will finally be a legitimate MVP candidate.

Now is the time!  Your presence has thrown a wrench in what was a good thing.  You have the power to change that.  Take a few less shots, make a few more passes, move a little more on offense and defense and let's see what happens!!!

Thank you.

Casey

Heat and Soul

The Wolves will be good by the end of the year.  And that is assuming that Roy can't contribute consistently (if at all) and Ricky doesn't come back until sometime in 2013.   It is also assuming they don't give up like they did last year.  And they won't.

The wolves were blown out of the past two games (as well as the Brooklyn game) and could have backed off and saved energy for the next one.  It's a long season after all.  Yet they made furious and unbelievable comebacks in the fourth quarter of both games.  Clearly they are a gritty bunch that will hustle until the end.  With the exception of Kirilenko and Ridnour (who could very well be a back up if everyone gets healthy) the wolves are competing in NBA games with second and third stringers.  Role players like Stiemsma, Cunningham and Amundson who have made careers out of playing harder than most to make up for their minimal skills are filling the shoes of Pekovic and Love.  Shved, Lee and Williams are too young and raw to define yet they are holding their own in the big roles they've been thrust into.  As a group, on paper, these guys do not match up with any team's starters but they yet they are competing.  This group has led the Wolves to the second best defense in the league.  And a winning record.  Those things happen when guys play together, for each other and play hard.  When guys do that, they maximize their talent and their contribution and they win as a team.  

People knock the NBA because too often players do not give 100% until the fourth quarter or until the playoffs.  And without Love, Ricky and Pek last year the Wolves fit that mold and were nearly unwatchable.  They showed no heart, no chemistry and no hustle.  At times this year, the under-maned and under-skilled wolves have played as hard as a Cinderella team in the sweet sixteen.  They've shown moments of fatigue but that is to be expected when a team only has nine players to suit-up.  That leads to the a major question...will the wolves keep up this hustle and grit when they have more bodies?  When they have more talented bodies?  The evidence says they will.  Kevin Love has made himself into one of the top ten players in the league by using hustle and a high basketball IQ to get way more rebounds (and second chance points) then he should be able to get.  And the Wolves will get him back, soon.  They will also get Pekovic, Barea, Buddinger, and Rubio back.  All guys with reputations of playing hard and long on both ends of the court.  They aren't perfect, but they are better and they play just as hard as their understudies.  So, the Wolves will win and will make some noise.  There will be days they succumb to a more talented team, but that won't happen most nights, not even against more talented teams.

During the offseason Kevin Love asked for a better team.  He asked for more talent.  Not only did he get more talent, he got better basketball players.  They aren't all prototypical NBA players but they will win.  If the Wolves get health and stay healthy, they will make the playoffs and make noise.   And along the way, they are going to be a lot of fun to watch.  For any basketball fan, not just an NBA fan.