OKC Rolls the Dice

The James Harden trade could be genius.  Surprisingly, almost all the experts think Oklahoma City has essentially conceded the Western Conference Title to the Lakers.  The experts point to chemistry and rapport between the core OKC players, most notably Harden, Westbrook and Durant as the key ingredient to the winning formula that OKC developed.  Typically, I agree.  Chemistry is crucial.  But it is not the only element that matters.  Particularly in the NBA.  In the NBA, having the right pieces to run a system and having enough talent can make a team great.   Great enough to win a championship once the requisite amount of chemistry develops. 

Harden is a great player and had great chemistry with the second team as well as Durant and Westbrook.  But with Harden, OKC did not have the right tools to beat the Heat.  Harden and Westbrook were too similar.  Harden is at his best driving to the rim and putting up reckless lay-ups.  The same is true for Westbrook.  When he is on, they go in.  When he is on, defenders cheat and allow the outside shooters a few extra feet outside of the three point line in order to clog the path to the basket.  When that happens and Westbrook and Harder are on on, OKC made a lot of 3-pointers and was virtually unstoppable.  However, reckless contested lay-ups and three pointers are low percentage shots and with the right defense OKC would be forced into "going cold" and would have trouble scoring. 

Consider last years Finals.  The Heat pummeled OKC largely due to Harden's ineffectiveness.  Harden wasn't on when it mattered most.  And OKC crumbled despite the fact that Westbrook played out of his mind.  Few performances can rival his game 4 performance.  In that same game, Harden went 2-10 from the floor while playing 37 minutes, much more than his regular season average.   The Heat sunk in on defense, locked down Durant, let Harden shoot from the outside and knew that Westbrook alone could not beat them.  The Heat would continue to beat OKC so long as the core pieces reminded the same for each team.

Kevin Martin is a different player and will bring a different element to OKC's offense.  His strongest asset is shooting well off the dribble or catch.  If Scott Brooks can revamp his offense such that pick and rolls with Durant/Martin and Westbrook/Martin become a main stay that opens up everything.  That pulls the bigger defenders away from the rim in order to help create space at the rim for Westbrook, Durant, Martin and Ibaka.  Martin's ability to shoot quickly and effectively off the catch means defenders won't be able to cheat and sink in.  Plus, he is big enough to set effective picks.  And, if defenses are able to stop the pick and the role the third superstar will be floating around with the ability to find the open space, get to it and beat that defense by shooting, driving or moving the ball again.  Finally, since Serge Ibaka will no longer by a main pick and roll component that leaves him closer to the basket which is where he is a more effective scorer and rebounder. 

Of course OKC will only challenge for the Western Conference title and the NBA title if Kevin Martin develops Harden like Chemistry with OKC.  That won't happen overnight.  As we learned from the Heat two years ago and last year, it takes more than a big 3, it takes a big three plus chemistry and the right pieces (unless you have Lebron James who can play five positions and make any pieces look like the right pieces).  If Sam Presti, who is widely recognized as one of the best GMs, thought that OKC didn't have the right big three I think there is more to it than the 4 million dollar salary dispute.  Sam Presti saw a problem.  OKC had the chemistry but not the right pieces to make it a championship contender.  Chemistry is something that naturally grows and develops.  But if the pieces don't fit together in a way that can overcome an opponents strengths, it does not matter how much chemistry a team has.  Now OKC has an opportunity to get to the next level, the championship level.  Kevin Martin has physical attributes that Harden did not.  He brings an element to the offense that Harden did not.   Right now OKC has opportunity. Time will tell if it develops into a reality.  But Sam Presti has to get some credit for taking a calculated unpopular risk.  One that actually gives OKC a chance to de-throne the Heat. 

The Power of Tim

Admittedly, I don't watch a lot of National League baseball so maybe I should know more about the Giants players.  But this series has been fun to watch and I keep asking myself this:  What's not to like about the Giants?  First of all they had the guts to let Melky Cabrera, the early front runner for the batting title and possibly the MVP, sit home and watch the playoffs after he returned from his steroid suspension.  Sounds like a good way to build chemistry and show faith in the guys that got them to the playoffs in the first place.

Then there has been the barrage of unsung heroes throughout this improbable run the Giants are on.  Most ridiculous of all was of course Pablo Sandoval hitting 3 home runs in game 1 of the World Series after hitting only 12 home runs during the entire regular season.  Ryan Vogelsong is a 35 year old journeyman who has given up 3 runs in 4 starts this postseason largely due to pinpoint accuracy and the guts to relentlessly throw inside to the big right handed hitters he has faced.  Barry Zito has been a huge factor and he should have been out of the league years ago given how low he sunk.  And but for a season ending arm injury to their sure thing, eccentric closer Brian Wilson, we wouldn't have had the opportunity to watch Sergio Romo do his thing and completely shut down the high powered Detroit offense with slider after slider.  Unsung heroes are fun to watch!  I thank the Giants for proving once again to sports fans everywhere that on big stages non-superstars often shine brighter than the superstars they face.

But  I think one thing has been the difference and will lead the Giants to the title.  Tim Lincecum.  He was their ace, a true superstar two time Cy young winner.  Rather than letting him flounder and hurt the team during his struggles this year, Bruce Bochy demoted him to the bullpen.  He got Tim to accept the new role and somehow, at the perfect time, Tim mastered it.  The Giants pitching has been dominate and I have to believe that knowing Tim Lincecum is sitting in the bullpen ready go and go for long stretches has to be mentally relaxing and freeing for the starters.  Each starter knows they can relax a little bit because it isn't all on them.  If they aren't sharp that day, Tim is ready.  I have to believe it changes the mentality of every player on the Giants team. 

What a luxury for these overachieving pitchers, knowing that if they can't bring their best on the biggest stage they happen to have a young two time Cy young award winner waiting to step up and back them up.  In a game where inches can change the outcome of a game, a series, a season, Tim Lincecum's ability to accept, adjust and thrive in an unfamiliar role has to be a huge factor in the fact that the Giants will win the World Series in 2012.